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The post-election rally regained strength in the week, helping to bring all of the major benchmarks to a series of record highs. T. Rowe Price traders observed that the “Trump trade” continued for much of the week, favoring small-caps over large-caps and lower-priced (relative to earnings) value stocks over faster-growing companies. This pattern was reflected in the strong gain of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which ended the week as the best-performing index for the year to date. Remarkably, the Russell 2000 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the Standard & Poor’s MidCap 400 Index ended the week having more than quadrupled off the lows they set in early 2009.
TECHNICAL FACTORS JOIN WITH ECONOMIC OPTIMISM TO PUSH SHARES HIGHER
Optimism about the incoming administration's plans for fiscal stimulus through reduced taxes and increased infrastructure spending, along with deregulation, seemed to continue to drive sentiment during the week. The firm’s traders noted that technical factors also seemed to be at work, however, as investors who had taken short positions in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were forced to cover their positions as the benchmark crossed an important threshold (2,225) at midweek. (Short positions involve selling borrowed shares to profit from a decline in a stock's price.) Conversely, the Italian referendum over the previous weekend and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday (see below)—both of which were expected to have an impact on U.S. markets—seemed to have been met with a shrug.
The week’s economic data were generally supportive of sentiment, with positive readings on service sector activity, factory orders, and mortgage applications. The number of job openings fell a bit in October, but this backward look at the labor market was offset somewhat by a drop in the number of jobless claims during the previous week. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits remained at lows not seen since the early 1970s, when the overall labor force was much smaller.
BONDS: MUNI VALUATION RATIOS LURE BUYERS
Although the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose as the week progressed, it remained a bit below the nearly 17-month high it established the previous Thursday. Municipal bonds outperformed Treasuries after muni investors entered the week hoping for some stability but also in anticipation of a fairly large new issuance calendar. Recent pressure on the sector has brought valuation ratios (yields relative to Treasuries) to a level that enticed traditional muni buyers as well as "crossover" taxable investors. With a drop in new issuance expected from now through the new year, investors are anticipating strong technicals over the next few months.
Relatively high U.S. rates continued to drive demand in the investment-grade corporate bond market, but T. Rowe Price analysts noted that demand from investors in Asia quietly faded over the week. There were signs of portfolios looking to secure recent gains ahead of the ECB's decision about the future of its monthly bond purchases. However, as with equities, the market's response to the ECB announcement was muted.
RESURGENT ENERGY SECTOR SEES HEALTHY HIGH YIELD ISSUANCE
Meanwhile, the high yield primary calendar was very active amid the push to bring new deals to the market before the upcoming Christmas holiday. A number of deals from oil-related companies marked the resurgence of the energy sector and were met with healthy demand. Secondary market trading also picked up, with buyers outnumbering sellers. The firm’s analysts noted that institutional investors with cash on hand and looking to add risk and close underweight positions drove much of the trading activity.