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Stocks were modestly lower for the holiday-shortened week as investors kept a close eye on potential changes from the new administration in advance of Donald Trump’s inauguration Friday. The political uncertainty may have kept trading volumes relatively light through most of the week, despite the arrival of many closely watched fourth-quarter earnings reports. Small-cap stocks, which are typically more volatile, performed worst.
Trading began Tuesday after the holiday with something of a “Trump unwind,” according to T. Rowe Price traders. Many of the stocks that have done best since his election underperformed, while sectors that have lagged did better. In particular, financial shares, which have benefited from hopes for deregulation and improved lending margins, pulled back sharply as investors appeared to doubt whether Trump’s plans would come to fruition. Better earnings out of Morgan Stanley failed to improve sentiment in the sector. Conversely, defensive stocks reversed recent poor performance and fared better, with consumer staples and utilities stocks both recording good gains.
A better-than-expected earnings report from Netflix on Wednesday similarly seemed unable to drive much of a reaction in Internet-oriented stocks or the overall market. Instead, politics again took center stage as Trump’s Commerce Secretary nominee Wilbur Ross, in his confirmation testimony, promised to address NAFTA soon after the inauguration. Ross also suggested that the administration might raise tariffs on Chinese steel and bring anti-dumping actions against the country. The Mexican peso fell in response, while U.S. steel stocks jumped.
T. Rowe Price equity managers acknowledge that substantial attention is warranted to changes coming from the Trump administration. They also generally suspect that many on Wall Street, however, have been too quick to act on speculation about the new president’s policies and which companies will be the winners and losers under the new administration. They caution that predicting the near-term direction of the stock market or individual companies is made more challenging by the high level of unknowns about Trump’s first year as president.
BONDS: YIELDS RISE ON GOOD ECONOMIC DATA
The week’s economic data were generally solid, which helped push longer-term bond yields higher even if it may have had a minimal effect on stock prices. Housing starts jumped in December and reached their second-highest level since the sector’s collapse in 2008–2009. Weekly jobless claims fell back unexpectedly to a two-month low and near their lowest level in four decades. Treasury prices fell as yields rose, which also weighed on municipal bond prices.
The investment-grade corporate bond market saw a surge in bank new issuance after the release of some solid earnings in the sector. The new deals were met with healthy demand. Overnight demand from Asia reemerged during the week, and there was a notable uptick in demand for 30-year paper from both domestic and international investors. New issuance was the dominant theme of the high yield market, but the deals generated strong overall interest and were oversubscribed. Secondary trading was light as investors mostly focused on the primary calendar, according to T. Rowe Price analysts.