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BLUE CHIPS RISE, BUT BROADER INDEXES BREAK WINNING STREAK
Stocks broke a string of three consecutive weekly gains and ended modestly lower. The narrowly focused Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed the broader market, helped by strong performance from “blue chip” bank, energy, and health care stocks. Conversely, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index underperformed considerably, as investors shunned some prominent, fast-growing stocks whose future earnings have become less attractive in the face of higher interest rates. Biotechnology stocks performed poorly overall, and semiconductor shares sold off sharply late in the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index was also particularly weak.
T. Rowe Price traders noted that the market began the week on a cautious note amid muted trading volumes, as investors awaited some key upcoming events, such as the Italian referendum (see below). On Wednesday, investors got news of one of those key developments, when OPEC agreed to production cuts in order to boost oil prices. The fact that oil producers had managed to come to an agreement surprised many and sent oil prices up nearly 9% for the day—and the stocks of oil exploration and production firms up almost 11%. Trading volumes also spiked Wednesday, fed in part by repositioning by institutional investors at month-end.
REFLATION TRADE SEES CYCLICAL ROTATION
The rise in oil prices, combined with some encouraging economic data, led to a broad-based “reflation trade” late in the week, according to the firm’s traders. Stability in the broad benchmarks masked significant sector volatility, with investors trading out of defensive stocks and those sensitive to higher interest rates and inflation, such as utilities, telecommunication services, and consumer staples shares. In their place, investors moved into sectors that would benefit the most from a cyclical upturn in the global economy, such as energy, materials, and financials. While expectations for fiscal stimulus and faster economic growth under the Trump administration seemed to be partly responsible for this trend, T. Rowe Price portfolio managers have noted such a cyclical rotation was already underway in advance of the election.
SOLID ECONOMIC DATA PUSH 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MID-2015
The reflation trade was also directly evident in the bond market. Solid readings on personal income gains, manufacturing activity, and construction spending helped push the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to its highest level since mid-2015 as bond prices sank. Yields fell back a bit on Friday, however, as investors appeared to react to a mixed monthly payrolls report. The number of jobs added in November was roughly in line with expectations, but hourly earnings fell a bit, and the labor force participation rate ticked lower. T. Rowe Price Chief U.S. Economist Alan Levenson observes that the aging U.S. population is putting constant downward pressure on the participation rate, meaning that even stable readings should be interpreted as good news in future months. Levenson believes that the Fed will raise interest rates at its mid-December policy meeting and affirm its intention to continue gradually raising rates in 2017.
Municipal bonds underperformed Treasuries this week, as investors continued to face not only the rising yield environment, but also a sizable ($8 billion) new issuance calendar. Recent municipal market outflows have put additional pressure on the sector, but T. Rowe Price analysts note that they seemed to be largely concentrated in a number of major fund firms. They also observe that selling pressure appeared to be highly concentrated on the longer-maturity end of the yield curve, which has resulted in some of the cheapest ratios of municipal yields relative to Treasuries since the 2013 “taper tantrum.”
OPEC AGREEMENT LIFTS ENERGY BOND PRICES
While an expected flood of new issuance in the investment-grade corporate bond market following the Thanksgiving holiday did not materialize, there was a surge in financials sector supply toward the end of the week. Anticipation of the OPEC meeting and Friday's employment report seemed to temper risk appetite to some degree before the market's tone improved partly due to month-end buying. The OPEC deal to cut production, followed by strong demand from Asian investors, fueled gains in the energy sector.
The high yield bond market was quiet most of the week, with modest secondary volumes and little price movement. New issuance heading into December is expected to be light but could grow as opportunistic issuers seek funding before year-end. The below investment-grade market reacted favorably to the news of the OPEC agreement, and energy sector bonds rallied along with oil prices.