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The major benchmarks ended the week mixed as the first significant fourth-quarter earnings reports made their appearance. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite performed best and reached record highs. Financials, which have fared best since the election on the promise of higher lending margins and deregulation, started off on a weak note but received a boost Friday from some positive bank earnings.
TRUMP COMMENTS HIT DRUG STOCKS
The week’s modest advance masked some bouts of significant volatility. The largest such burst came Wednesday afternoon, as investors reacted to President-elect Trump’s first press conference since the election. Trump vowed to “create new bidding procedures for the drug industry,” which he accused of “getting away with murder.” Fortune calculated that the nine largest pharmaceutical firms declined by almost $25 billion in market value following the comments, although stocks recouped some of their losses later in the week.
Some positive economic data appeared to keep a floor under equities. The government reported on Friday that retail sales rose a solid 0.6% in December, with gains concentrated in autos, furniture, and online sales. The news was particularly welcome in light of major store closing announcements the previous week from Macy’s and Sears—although it also highlighted the way changes in the economy are taking a toll on some firms while rewarding others. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment, also released Friday, unexpectedly ticked lower but remained near its highest level since the financial crisis.
Hopes for stronger earnings growth in coming months may have also supported sentiment. While traveling in Asia, T. Rowe Price Chairman Bill Stromberg told Reuters that a revival in earnings growth is already built into share prices. "We too think earnings will grow from this level, but not by as much as the market might think," he remarked. As of the end of the week, analysts polled by data and analytics firm FactSet were predicting an overall year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 of 3.2%, only slightly higher than the previous quarter.
BONDS: DEMAND RETURNING TO MUNI MARKET?
Intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields were roughly flat for the week, with a 10-year auction seeing good demand. Municipal bonds posted positive returns, outperforming U.S. Treasuries as coupon reinvestments continued to support the market. T. Rowe Price analysts note that demand seems to have returned to the muni market, with many of the week’s $8 billion in new issues oversubscribed. Strong inflows and oversubscribed deals look to continue at least until the new issuance calendar can ramp up to meet investor demand.
The investment-grade corporate bond market again saw a heavy dose of new issuance, but it was generally easily absorbed. The U.S. banking and technology/media and telecommunications sectors underperformed other market segments and experienced greater spread widening. With U.S. banks starting to report earnings, investors seemed reluctant to add risk ahead of potential supply. Meanwhile, high yield market volumes remained below average, due in part to a subdued issuance calendar.